The Polish Retail Research Forum (PRRF) has published its data on the Polish shopping centre market for H1 2016. Its market data prepared by a team of analysts concern modern retail stock, including newly-delivered schemes, development pipeline and the retail space saturation levels (sq m per 1,000 inhabitants). The PRRF has also published its data on the volumes of vacant space in Poland’s key retail markets. It currently monitors eighteen retail markets in Poland following the inclusion of cities with 150,000–200,000 inhabitants (Rzeszów, Olsztyn and Bielsko-Biała) in June 2016.
We are also pleased to inform that two more real estate advisory firms Knight Frank and Savills joined the Polish Retail Research Forum in June 2016, which has enabled us to extend the scope of our analytic work.
- At the end of June 2016, Poland’s total stock of modern shopping centres, including retail parks and outlet centres, reached 10.9 million sq m of GLA across 467 retail schemes.
- The Warsaw agglomeration (nearly 1.5 million sq m of GLA) and the Katowice conurbation (more than 1.1 million sq m of GLA) remain the largest retail markets in Poland. Of the eight major agglomerations, Szczecin has the smallest modern retail stock of 273,000 sq m of GLA.
- Among the eight largest retail markets in Poland, the highest retail saturation levels are invariably in the Wrocław agglomeration (817 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants) and the Poznań agglomeration (764 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants), whilst the lowest is in Szczecin (489 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants).
- In H1 2016, only 83,000 sq m of leasable space was added to the total modern stock of shopping centres in Poland.
- Three new shopping centres were opened providing a total of 39,000 sq m of leasable space: Galeria Glogovia (21,500 sq m) in Głogów, Karuzela in Września (12,000 sq m) and Galeria Awangarda in Bartoszyce (6,000 sq m), all in cities below 100,000 inhabitants.
- The trend to redevelop and extend older retail schemes continued in H1 2016. Examples include the complete redevelopment of the former ETC Gdańsk shopping centre that has been rebranded as Galeria Zaspa (9,000 sq m) and the extensions of Atrium Promenada in Warsaw and Auchan in Gdańsk.
- H1 2016 also saw the first ever closing down of a shopping centre: Centrum Sosnowiec in Sosnowiec (17,000 sq m).
- At the end of H1 2016, there was approximately 620,000 sq m of modern shopping centre space under construction, around 48% of which is scheduled to be delivered by year-end 2016. The eight largest agglomerations accounted for the largest share in the development pipeline (82%). Extensions of existing schemes make up 13% of the retail space under construction. The largest schemes underway are the Posnania shopping centre (99,000 sq m of GLA), Wroclavia (64,000 sq m of GLA), Galeria Północna (64,000 sq m of GLA) and Forum Gdańsk (62,000 sq m of GLA).
- The vacancy rate for the largest 15 retail markets in Poland rose slightly from 3.1% at year-end 2015 to 3.3% at the end of H1 2016. The biggest hikes in vacancies were in cities that had seen considerably increased competition on the retail market or are expected to see such competition soon, such as Poznań and Bydgoszcz.
- Of the eight largest agglomerations, the highest vacancy rates were in Poznań (5.2%) and Łódź (4%), whilst the lowest were in the Warsaw agglomeration (1.6%) and the Szczecin agglomeration (2%).
- Among the seven retail markets comprising cities with 199,000–399,000 inhabitants, the largest volumes of vacant space were in Radom (9.3%) and Bydgoszcz (7.6%) and the smallest in Lublin (2.1%). Toruń recorded a considerable drop in vacancies to 3.1% at the end of H1 2016 (down by 2.1 percentage points compared to year-end 2015).
- The market situation in the newly-included cities with 150,000–200,000 inhabitants appears stable with vacancy rates standing at 1.5%–2.6%.
Polish Retail Research Forum
The Polish Retail Research Forum comprises six real estate services firms: CBRE, Colliers International, Cushman & Wakefield, JLL, Knight Frank and Savills, whose representatives aim to standardize figures published through collection and comparison of half-yearly data.