Due to the Sunday trading ban we can expect decrease in retail trade in Poland. On the other hand retail sales are generally higher by 8% in 2017, therefore, the anticipated short-term drop of sales could be mitigated within 6-9 months in terms of absolute numbers.
Part of the turnover in retail trade may be spread over the remaining days of the week; however, due to the phenomenon of compulsive shopping, i.e. unplanned purchases, the overall turnover in trade is predicted to decrease. It will be felt by clothing stores, which are the crucial tenants of shopping centers, electronics & home appliances stores and all the other product categories, which require time for buying decision and are related with compulsive shopping.
The major damage will be incurred by food & beverages within shopping center food-courts, which do not have the possibility to transfer sales to other days of the week.
In super and hypermarkets the average sales on Sunday is lower than on the other days of the week, that is why the most of Sunday sales will probably spread over the remaining days of the week, only the part corresponding to compulsive shopping will be lost.
Centers located on the outskirts of cities and with limited offer appear to be the most exposed to losses.
In shopping centers located close to office and residential clusters, an increase in visits on Thursdays and Mondays is expected in the afternoon and evening hours.
As for large and very large shopping centers, it may be necessary to extend working hours on Fridays and Saturdays and on Thursdays and/or Mondays.
The expected decrease in turnover may result in tenants of shopping centers to exert pressure in order to lower rental rates. However, since rents have been stable or slightly down whilst sales have grown, it is rather not anticipated that turnover drop will require rental reductions.
Outlet centers, which generate about 80% of their footfall and turnover at weekends may also feel major decrease in turnover.
Małgorzata Dziubińska, Associate Director, Consulting & Research, Cushman & Wakefield