Poland’s economy remains one of the strongest performers in the EU, with third quarter GDP growth rising 0.9% q/q and 3.7% y/y. Recent leading economic data suggests that this healthy momentum continued in Q4, with retail sales rising strongly in November, while exports have also expanded at a healthy pace. Business confidence did wane towards the end of 2015, but private investment remains strong and is estimated to have expanded by 6.5% in 2015.
GDP: Current strong rate of GDP growth expected to be maintained over the medium term.
Inflation: Few inflationary pressures in the short term, with prices only gradually rising throughout 2016.
Interest rate: Forecasted cut in interest rates in 2016, with the new MPC members expected to be dovish.
Employment: Strong job creation in 2015, but a more moderate pace of growth is anticipated over the medium term.